{
  "$schema": "https://github.com/otakuch/observatoires-ia/blob/main/schemas/scenarios-ia-ch.schema.json",
  "version": "0.3.0",
  "compiled_at": "2026-04-26",
  "country": "CH",
  "scope": "Scénarios prospectifs · gains de productivité IA en Suisse 2025-2030",
  "license": "CC BY 4.0",
  "source_aggregator": "Naully Nicolas · observatoire[s]·ia",
  "documentation_url": "https://observatoire-ia.naullynicolas.ch/methodologie.html",
  "method_note": "Probabilités agrégées à partir de 18 économistes/institutions référencés et de méta-analyses 2024-2026. Voir economistes-ia-ch.json pour le détail.",
  "count": 5,
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "name": "Stagnation",
      "annual_productivity_growth_range": "0–0.5%/an",
      "probability_pct": 8,
      "color_hex": "#C43820"
    },
    {
      "name": "Croissance modérée",
      "annual_productivity_growth_range": "0.5–1.5%/an",
      "probability_pct": 22,
      "color_hex": "#D47820"
    },
    {
      "name": "Accélération IA",
      "annual_productivity_growth_range": "1.5–3%/an",
      "probability_pct": 40,
      "color_hex": "#138050"
    },
    {
      "name": "Transformation majeure",
      "annual_productivity_growth_range": "3–5%/an",
      "probability_pct": 22,
      "color_hex": "#1E5CB8"
    },
    {
      "name": "Rupture technologique",
      "annual_productivity_growth_range": ">5%/an",
      "probability_pct": 8,
      "color_hex": "#8B3DAA"
    }
  ]
}